The Fabregas Paradox: 700 Passes to Nowhere
""We made 700 passes, they made 200. It’s unbelievable." Cesc Fàbregas, Post-Match Press Conference."
That was the post-match verdict from Cesc Fàbregas delivered with the bewildered expression of a man who had solved a complex mathematical equation perfectly only to be told he failed the test because he did not write the answer in red ink. If football were gymnastics judged on style points and artistic interpretation his Como side would have taken Gold last night at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
They were fluid and they were pretty and they played what the purists like to call the right way. But football is not gymnastics. It is a street fight played on grass where the only metric that truly survives the final whistle is efficiency.
"While Como was busy painting a masterpiece with their seven hundred passes Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan simply walked in and punched them in the throat three times and walked out with the three points."
This match was a masterclass in the art of winning without dominating. It was a manifesto on the illusion of control that validated a shift in elite football analytics where metrics like Field Tilt and Pass Volume are becoming secondary to Transition Efficiency and Big Chance Conversion.
As a Milanista it was stressful to watch but as an analyst it was beautiful in its cynicism. We absorbed their pressure and we let them have their ball and then we killed them when they blinked.
The Possession Trap (The "U-Shape" Sterile Domination)
The Setup: Como set up in a fluid 3-5-2, flooding the midfield with Nico Paz, Baturina, and Perrone. Their goal was clear: overload the central channels, force Milan narrow, and recycle possession until a gap appeared.
The Reality: Milan, operating in a 4-2-3-1, happily took the bait. Look at the defensive metrics. Milan’s "Pass Availability" for defenders like Tomori (76%) and De Winter (77%) was high, not because they were building out the back, but because they were absorbing pressure and resetting.
Como’s passing network resembled the dreaded "U-Shape", circulating from Van Der Brempt to Kempf to Moreno without penetrating Milan’s double pivot of Fofana and Modrić. They racked up 144 passes in the final third , yet generated only 2 actual scoring chances.
The Analytical Takeaway: Possession without penetration is just cardio. Milan’s PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) was intentionally high. They didn't press Como high up the pitch (evident by Fofana’s lower pressing numbers compared to his usual output). They sat in a mid-block, waited for the lateral pass, and triggered transitions via Leão and Nkunku.
The Vulnerability (Why Do We Always Concede From Corners?)
The Incident: Minute 10. Marc-Oliver Kempf rises unchallenged to head home a Martin Baturina delivery. 1-0 Como.
The Analytics of the Failure: This is not an isolated incident; it’s a systemic flaw in Milan’s 2025/26 defensive architecture. Let's look at the data. Como generated 8 corners in this match alone. When you concede that volume of set-pieces, you are rolling the dice against variance.
But why did Milan concede?
- Zonal Disconnect: Milan defends corners in a mixed zonal system. The "Blockers" (usually Tomori and Gabbia) are tasked with attacking the ball, while the "Screeners" (Modrić, Saelemaekers) disrupt runners.
- The Height Deficit: Look at the lineup. Modrić (14), Saelemaekers (56), Bartesaghi (33), and Nkunku (18) offer very little aerial resistance. Como identified this. Baturina didn't aim for the cluster of giants (Tomori/Gabbia); he aimed for the "Zone of Uncertainty" near the penalty spot where Milan’s smaller pivots were screening.
- Passive Clearance: The stats show Milan made plenty of clearances, but the quality of the first contact is poor. We allow the ball to drop in the 6-yard box too often.
The Fix
Allegri has options, but he needs to commit:
We need to stop using the "Mixed" system if the personnel cannot win 1v1 aerial duels. A switch to a heavy "Man-to-Man" marking scheme on the opponent's best headers (Kempf in this case) would neutralize the threat, leaving Maignan to claim the crosses.
Man-mark the primary threats while pressing the delivery. It's aggressive, it's risky, but it stops us from being passive victims in our own box.
The Pivot (xG vs. Game State)
The Turning Point: Football is a game of moments. For 44 minutes, Como was the better team. But Christopher Nkunku’s penalty in the 45+1’ minute completely inverted the Game State.
Game State Theory: When Como led 1-0, they could play their possession game without risk. At 1-1, the pressure shifted. They had to score again at home. This opened the spaces Milan needed. The analytics show this shift beautifully in the "Dangerousity" metrics. Milan’s Dangerousity in Transition was 62.34%, compared to Como’s 39%. This means every time Milan stole the ball, they were nearly twice as likely to create a scoring event than Como were during their slow build-up.
Maignan’s Contribution: We cannot ignore Mike Maignan. 5 saves. In models like "Goals Prevented" (PSxG +/-), Maignan likely posted a +1.5 performance here. He kept Milan alive when the "U-Shape" possession was suffocating them.
The concept of Game State is critical here. Teams behave differently when they are chasing a game versus when they are protecting a lead. By equalizing right before the break Milan forced Como to abandon their patient structure in the second half. They pushed their defensive line higher leaving vast tracts of land for Rafael Leão to exploit. It was a tactical checkmate delivered not on a tactics board but through psychological pressure.
The Metronome Wears Number 12
While Fabregas complained about pass disparity Adrien Rabiot showed what verticality actually looks like. He was the true Metronome of this match not by ticking over safe possession but by setting the intensity of the press and the timing of the runs.
According to the Serie Match Report, Rabiot covered 11.488 kilometers which was the highest distance of any player on the pitch. He ran nearly a full kilometer more than Como’s midfield engine Nico Paz who covered 10.642 kilometers.
His first goal in the fifty-fifth minute was a thing of beauty and a testament to efficient football. It came from a trademark transition. Rafael Leão who had been conserving his energy for exactly this moment received the ball and drove at the terrified Como defense.
But look at Rabiot’s positioning. He was not sitting deep next to Modrić. He was crashing the box like a False 10. He arrived at exactly the right moment to finish the move.
His second goal in the eighty-eighth minute was pure game management and physical dominance. As Como pushed desperate numbers forward for an equalizer Rabiot exploited the exhausted midfield space. He had the lungs to make that final run when everyone else was legs gone.
That is the difference between activity and impact. Como’s midfielders touched the ball more but Rabiot touched the game more. He finished with two goals two key passes and five gained possessions. He did not need 700 passes to be the best player on the park.
Rabiot’s performance highlights the evolving role of the central midfielder. It is no longer enough to just be a distributor. You must be an engine. You must be a finisher. You must be a disruptor. While Nico Paz played a lovely aesthetic game for Como racking up touches and looking elegant Rabiot played a winning game. He was direct he was physical and he was decisive.
"In a match defined by the contrast between style and substance Rabiot was the ultimate substance."
Winning is the Only Stat That Matters
As someone who heads a football analytics department it is easy to fall in love with the process. We love beautiful pass maps and high xG and dominant possession numbers because they feel sustainable. But this match serves as a brutal reminder that efficiency is the ultimate market inefficiency.
Milan didn't dominate the ball. They dominated the crucial interactions.
- They won the Penalty Box duel (Maignan Saves vs. Como Finishing).
- They won the Transition duel (Nkunku/Leão pace vs. Como Rest Defense).
- They won the Physical duel (Rabiot’s power efficiency vs. Como’s technical midfield).
Cesc Fabregas can keep his seven hundred passes. He can frame the stat sheet and put it in the Como club museum as proof that they "played the right way." We will gladly take the 3 points!
"In the end football isn't gymnastics. You don't get points for beautiful or artistic impression. You get points for putting the ball in the net."
Forza Milan! 🔴⚫
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