AC Milan's January transfer window revolves around a single question: Does a team built on speed, width, and transition need a traditional No. 9?

The answer, according to Massimiliano Allegri's tactical blueprint, is yes, but not for the reasons most fans think.

This isn't about goals. It's about structural relief. And Niclas Füllkrug, 

West Ham's 31-year-old German international

, represents the most polarizing test case in modern Serie A.

The data presents two conflicting analytical narratives:

 Füllkrug is a monster in the air. Last season, he won nearly 

. He is the "Bypass" button Milan has been missing; the guy who wins the long ball so the rest of the team can finally stop defending and start breathing.

 The trade-off is real. Füllkrug isn’t a "marathon" striker. He ranks in the 

, meaning he won’t be sprinting to press the keeper. If Milan wants a high-energy "hunting" system, he’s a massive roadblock.

So which narrative wins? Let's follow the data, not the sentiment.


The Füllkrug Profile: What the Numbers Actually Say

To understand why Allegri wants a 31-year-old from West Ham, you have to look past the goals. You have to look at his 

Notice the extreme difference in shape between Füllkrug (Pink) and Milan’s current striker Giménez (Yellow). Giménez dominates the box; Füllkrug dominates the air.

The Visual Evidence: A Clash of Identities

The radar chart above isn't just data; it’s a map of two different sports.

. His shape pulls heavily to the right. He is elite at getting touches in the box (

), but he offers almost zero vertical outlet.

. His shape stretches aggressively to the bottom-left. He is the only player in this comparison who functions as a true "Target Hub," dominating the aerial and long-pass metrics.

According to the 2025/26 volume metrics comparison (see table below), Füllkrug is a 

 in the areas Milan is currently weakest.

 in vertical dominance. When Maignan kicks long, Füllkrug actually makes it a 50/50 contest; Giménez makes it a turnover.

, the highest among Serie A’s elite targets. He isn't just a striker; he is a magnet for the "panic ball." When the midfield is suffocating, he provides the exit route that Lukaku (6.20) and Vlahović (5.10) do not.

The trade-off for this structural dominance is clear in the data. Füllkrug is a specialist, not a multi-tool.

. Why? Because he spends half the game fighting center-backs at the halfway line to win the initial ball.

 While he wins the ball, he doesn't run with it. Ranking in the 

, Füllkrug is a "Wall", he bounces the ball to Leão or Pulisic rather than turning and sprinting.

Füllkrug’s heatmap (implied by his lower box touches) shows a 

. In a Fonseca system, this is a disaster because the striker needs to press. In an 

, this is the "Key." Allegri doesn't want his striker chasing fullbacks; he wants him pinned centrally to occupy two defenders, leaving the half-spaces wide open for 

 Giménez is the better finisher, but Füllkrug is the only one playing the position Allegri actually needs.


The Case for Füllkrug: When Data Supports the Move

For AC Milan, the potential addition of Niclas Füllkrug presents a fascinating case study. Could he be the answer to their pressing challenges, or would his limitations expose the team's vulnerabilities? Here, we explore both sides of this debate.

 Adding Füllkrug provides Milan with a "tactical timeout" when facing deep defensive blocks.

, Füllkrug operates in a different tactical weight class than Milan's current options. While Tammy Abraham receives roughly 

 long passes per 90 minutes, Füllkrug is the target for a massive 

This isn't just a number; it's a structural revolution. That difference means Füllkrug provides 

 where Maignan can bypass the press entirely.

Imagine this: Every time Füllkrug controls one of those 8 long balls, Milan’s defensive line gets to sprint 

 without playing a single risky pass. It’s a "Tactical Reset" that happens four times more often than it does with Abraham. That is roughly 

 of game time where Milan isn't pinned in their own box.

Historical Precedent: The Dortmund Blueprint

The proof is in the Champions League run. During Borussia Dortmund’s 2023/24 road to the final, Füllkrug didn't just score; he carried the team up the pitch. In the Champions League specifically, he won an elite 

, essentially guaranteeing his defenders a "get out of jail free" card almost four times every match.

 Against Serie A’s deep defensive teams, Füllkrug creates vertical overloads that force compact formations to break.

confirms that Füllkrug’s primary function is "Pinning." By occupying two center-backs physically, he creates a 

 This drop creates crucial pockets of space between the opposition midfield and defense.

 In the 2023/24 season, Füllkrug averaged 

. Crucially, most of these weren't from dribbles, but from 

winning the initial ball and setting up a teammate (like Brandt/Malen, or now Pulisic) for a shot.

Case Study: Füllkrug vs. High Pressing Teams 

When facing aggressive high-lines (similar to Atalanta or Inter), Füllkrug transforms from a scorer to a "Wall." Looking at his performance against 

 in 2023/24, the data shows his value as an outlet:

 (Top 30% of forwards). Against high-pressing teams, these are "Gold" opportunity, cheap free kicks that break the opponent's rhythm and allow Milan to push up.

 Against PSG (a relentless pressing team), Füllkrug didn't just win headers; he acted as a pivot, receiving 

. He is the "Safety Valve" Maignan needs when the short option is cut off.

The Case AGAINST Füllkrug: When Data Contradicts the Move

 Füllkrug’s lack of pressing and mobility undermines Milan’s transition identity.

 FBref's advanced metrics confirm a stark defensive disparity. Füllkrug ranks in the 

bottom 10th percentile for defensive actions

, averaging significantly fewer ball regains than Milan’s current forward line. This discrepancy creates a numerical disadvantage when attempting to squeeze the pitch.

 Milan’s most lethal attacks often occur within 10 seconds of winning possession. However, 

Füllkrug’s recorded top speed this season is just 28.6 km/h

 than Rafael Leão’s 36.5 km/h. In a high-speed break, Füllkrug becomes a spectator rather than a participant.

Füllkrug's defensive actions to those of Milan's forwards, illustrating the "passive zone" he operates in.

FBref Scouting Report - European Big 5 Leagues (2024-2026)

 represents the "Passive Anchor." His total of 

 per 90 is statistically negligible compared to a high-intensity worker like Saelemaekers. He is a "statue" in the press, which confirms the 

Counterargument 2: The Age & Wages Question

 Füllkrug (31 years old, high wages) represents a short-term solution that contradicts Milan's rebuilding philosophy.

. West Ham's asking price ranges between 

, potentially keeping him at the club until age 33-34.

While Füllkrug offers immediate structural relief, he represents a "sunk cost" with zero salvage value. To illustrate the alternative path, I have selected four players, ranging from established elite targets to "Moneyball" scouting gems, who fit the 

: low entry age, high physical ceiling, and massive resale potential. 

The following table compares our primary target with four younger alternatives currently on the market or in the squad. Note how the "Resale Value" inversely correlates with age, highlighting the financial risk of the Füllkrug move.

The "Market Opportunity": Dušan Vlahović

 Under Allegri at Juventus, Vlahović was a vertical reference point. With his contract winding down in 2026, he is the "Gold Standard" alternative. He offers 

 but with 10 years more "tread on the tires." He is a capital investment, whereas Füllkrug is a rental expense.

 A lifelong Milan fan currently impressing at Club Brugge/Hannover roots, Tresoldi is the type of profile CEO Giorgio Furlani favors. He matches the 

 (3.2 pressures) that Füllkrug lacks, though he would require a "seasoning" period before leading the line at San Siro.

The Verdict: Short-term Fix vs. Long-term Health

 It solves Allegri's immediate suffocation problem but leaves the club with an aging, high-wage asset that will be impossible to sell in 24 months.

Counterargument 3: The System Adaptation Risk

 Building around Füllkrug forces Milan to accommodate a "tactical crutch," potentially compromising their long-term identity for a short-term fix.

The "Historical Warning": Manchester United & Wout Weghorst (2023)

In January 2023, Manchester United signed Wout Weghorst to solve a "structural gap" following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. Like Füllkrug, Weghorst was an aerially dominant reference point (

However, the empirical evidence from that six-month period serves as a grave warning for Milan:

17 Premier League matches without scoring a single goal

. While he provided "structural relief," he fundamentally lacked the clinical edge required at an elite club.

 United's attack became predictable. Despite his hold-up play, Weghorst significantly 

, finishing his loan with just 2 goals across 31 appearances in all competitions.

 Because Weghorst could not lead a high-speed break, United’s "Build-up tempo" slowed. Defenders began to bypass the midfield entirely to hit the "Big Man," leading to 

the exact same risk Milan faces with Allegri’s "Bypass Blueprint."

 Füllkrug is the medicine for Milan’s current headache, but the side effects might just be worse than the disease.

Scenario A: Füllkrug as a "Tactical Wild Card" (Recommended)

 15-20 minutes per game as a late-game change of pace.

 Against low blocks or when protecting leads.

 Provides a bypass option without compromising Milan's primary identity.

Scenario B: Füllkrug as a Starter (High Risk, High Reward)

 First-choice striker in a 4-4-2 diamond system.

Tags in Serie A

Füllkrug, Milan, and the No. 9 in Question: What the Data Actually Says