Füllkrug, Milan, and the No. 9 in Question: What the Data Actually Says

A Tale of Two Striker Philosophies

AC Milan's January transfer window revolves around a single question: Does a team built on speed, width, and transition need a traditional No. 9?

The answer, according to Massimiliano Allegri's tactical blueprint, is yes, but not for the reasons most fans think.

Niclas Füllkrug Germany No. 9(Credit: whufc.com)

This isn't about goals. It's about structural relief. And Niclas Füllkrug, West Ham's 31-year-old German international, represents the most polarizing test case in modern Serie A.

The data presents two conflicting analytical narratives:

• The Case For: Aerial Dominance. Füllkrug is a monster in the air. Last season, he won nearly 4 aerial duels every single game, placing him in the top 12% of strikers in Europe. He is the "Bypass" button Milan has been missing; the guy who wins the long ball so the rest of the team can finally stop defending and start breathing.
• The Case Against: The Mobility Gap. The trade-off is real. Füllkrug isn’t a "marathon" striker. He ranks in the bottom 10% for defensive work rate, meaning he won’t be sprinting to press the keeper. If Milan wants a high-energy "hunting" system, he’s a massive roadblock.

So which narrative wins? Let's follow the data, not the sentiment.

The Füllkrug Profile: What the Numbers Actually Say

To understand why Allegri wants a 31-year-old from West Ham, you have to look past the goals. You have to look at his Tactical DNA compared to what Milan currently has.

Radar Chart Niclas Füllkrug vs Serie A's Best

The Visual Evidence: A Clash of Identities

The radar chart above isn't just data; it’s a map of two different sports.

• The "Fox in the Box": Look at Santiago Giménez (Yellow). His shape pulls heavily to the right. He is elite at getting touches in the box (6.30 per 90), but he offers almost zero vertical outlet.
• The "Bypass Machine": Now look at Füllkrug (Pink). His shape stretches aggressively to the bottom-left. He is the only player in this comparison who functions as a true "Target Hub," dominating the aerial and long-pass metrics.

What He Does (The Elite Volume)

According to the 2025/26 volume metrics comparison (see table below), Füllkrug is a Volume Monster in the areas Milan is currently weakest.

• The "Sledgehammer" Effect: Füllkrug is winning 2.65 aerial duels per 90 minutes. Compare that to Giménez’s 0.57. This isn't a small upgrade; it is a 4x increase in vertical dominance. When Maignan kicks long, Füllkrug actually makes it a 50/50 contest; Giménez makes it a turnover.
• The Bypass Button: Füllkrug receives 7.80 long passes per 90, the highest among Serie A’s elite targets. He isn't just a striker; he is a magnet for the "panic ball." When the midfield is suffocating, he provides the exit route that Lukaku (6.20) and Vlahović (5.10) do not.

Comparison Serie A's Striker with Fullkrug

What He Doesn't Do (The Red Flags)

The trade-off for this structural dominance is clear in the data. Füllkrug is a specialist, not a multi-tool.

• Lower Box Presence: He averages 4.30 touches in the box, significantly lower than Giménez’s 6.30. Why? Because he spends half the game fighting center-backs at the halfway line to win the initial ball.
• The Mobility Tax: While he wins the ball, he doesn't run with it. Ranking in the bottom 10% for progressive carries, Füllkrug is a "Wall", he bounces the ball to Leão or Pulisic rather than turning and sprinting.

Santiago Gimeneze AC Milan(Credit: Detik Sport)

Why This Matters for Allegri

Füllkrug’s heatmap (implied by his lower box touches) shows a Stationary Anchor. In a Fonseca system, this is a disaster because the striker needs to press. In an Allegri system, this is the "Key." Allegri doesn't want his striker chasing fullbacks; he wants him pinned centrally to occupy two defenders, leaving the half-spaces wide open for Leão and Pulisic to attack the second ball.

"The Verdict: Giménez is the better finisher, but Füllkrug is the only one playing the position Allegri actually needs.
"

The Case for Füllkrug: When Data Supports the Move

For AC Milan, the potential addition of Niclas Füllkrug presents a fascinating case study. Could he be the answer to their pressing challenges, or would his limitations expose the team's vulnerabilities? Here, we explore both sides of this debate.

Scenario 1: The Structural Relief Model

"Hypothesis: Adding Füllkrug provides Milan with a "tactical timeout" when facing deep defensive blocks."

Supporting Data:

According to FBref’s 2023/24 Scouting Report, Füllkrug operates in a different tactical weight class than Milan's current options. While Tammy Abraham receives roughly 4.1 long passes per 90 minutes, Füllkrug is the target for a massive 8.2 long passes per 90.

This isn't just a number; it's a structural revolution. That difference means Füllkrug provides 4+ additional "Exit Routes" per game where Maignan can bypass the press entirely.

Imagine this: Every time Füllkrug controls one of those 8 long balls, Milan’s defensive line gets to sprint 20 meters upfield without playing a single risky pass. It’s a "Tactical Reset" that happens four times more often than it does with Abraham. That is roughly 10-12 minutes of game time where Milan isn't pinned in their own box.

Niclas Füllkrug Aerial Duel(Credit: Sportstar)

Historical Precedent: The Dortmund Blueprint

The proof is in the Champions League run. During Borussia Dortmund’s 2023/24 road to the final, Füllkrug didn't just score; he carried the team up the pitch. In the Champions League specifically, he won an elite 3.73 aerial duels per game, essentially guaranteeing his defenders a "get out of jail free" card almost four times every match.

Scenario 2: The "Anti-Low Block" Weapon

"Hypothesis: Against Serie A’s deep defensive teams, Füllkrug creates vertical overloads that force compact formations to break."

Supporting Data: Tactical analysis from The Coaches' Voice confirms that Füllkrug’s primary function is "Pinning." By occupying two center-backs physically, he creates a "Gravity Well" that forces the defensive line to drop.

• The "Leão Gap": This drop creates crucial pockets of space between the opposition midfield and defense.
• The Metric: In the 2023/24 season, Füllkrug averaged 2.41 Shot-Creating Actions per 90. Crucially, most of these weren't from dribbles, but from Lay-offs, winning the initial ball and setting up a teammate (like Brandt/Malen, or now Pulisic) for a shot.

Case Study: Füllkrug vs. High Pressing Teams

When facing aggressive high-lines (similar to Atalanta or Inter), Füllkrug transforms from a scorer to a "Wall." Looking at his performance against RB Leipzig and PSG in 2023/24, the data shows his value as an outlet:

• Fouls Drawn: He drew 1.66 fouls per 90 (Top 30% of forwards). Against high-pressing teams, these are "Gold" opportunity, cheap free kicks that break the opponent's rhythm and allow Milan to push up.
• The "Outlet" Stat: Against PSG (a relentless pressing team), Füllkrug didn't just win headers; he acted as a pivot, receiving 4.93 Progressive Passes per 90. He is the "Safety Valve" Maignan needs when the short option is cut off.

Niclas Füllkrug Map Open Play 2020/2021 - 2025/2026(Credit: understat.com)

The Case AGAINST Füllkrug: When Data Contradicts the Move

Counterargument 1: The Mobility Mismatch

"Hypothesis: Füllkrug’s lack of pressing and mobility undermines Milan’s transition identity."

Supporting Data:

• The Pressing Vacuum: FBref's advanced metrics confirm a stark defensive disparity. Füllkrug ranks in the bottom 10th percentile for defensive actions, averaging significantly fewer ball regains than Milan’s current forward line. This discrepancy creates a numerical disadvantage when attempting to squeeze the pitch.
• The Speed Gap: Milan’s most lethal attacks often occur within 10 seconds of winning possession. However, Füllkrug’s recorded top speed this season is just 28.6 km/h, nearly 8 km/h slower than Rafael Leão’s 36.5 km/h. In a high-speed break, Füllkrug becomes a spectator rather than a participant.

"Füllkrug's defensive actions to those of Milan's forwards, illustrating the "passive zone" he operates in."

Defensive metrics comparison from the 2024/25 and early 2025/26

Data Source:FBref Scouting Report - European Big 5 Leagues (2024-2026)

Tactical Observations

The "Passive" No. 9 Syndrome: As our previous analysis hypothesized, Niclas Füllkrug represents the "Passive Anchor." His total of 0.68 defensive actions per 90 is statistically negligible compared to a high-intensity worker like Saelemaekers. He is a "statue" in the press, which confirms the "Mobility Mismatch" we discussed earlier.

Counterargument 2: The Age & Wages Question

Hypothesis: Füllkrug (31 years old, high wages) represents a short-term solution that contradicts Milan's rebuilding philosophy.

Financial Reality:

According to Transfermarkt, Füllkrug's market value sits at €15 million, with estimated wages around €4-5 million net per season based on Bundesliga salary reports. West Ham's asking price ranges between €15-18 million. His contract could extend for 2-3 years, potentially keeping him at the club until age 33-34.

Alternative Investment:

While Füllkrug offers immediate structural relief, he represents a "sunk cost" with zero salvage value. To illustrate the alternative path, I have selected four players, ranging from established elite targets to "Moneyball" scouting gems, who fit the RedBird ownership model: low entry age, high physical ceiling, and massive resale potential.

The following table compares our primary target with four younger alternatives currently on the market or in the squad. Note how the "Resale Value" inversely correlates with age, highlighting the financial risk of the Füllkrug move.

The Financial & Tactical Trade-off: Füllkrug vs The Next Generation

Analytical Deep-Dive on the Alternatives

1. The "Market Opportunity": Dušan Vlahović Under Allegri at Juventus, Vlahović was a vertical reference point. With his contract winding down in 2026, he is the "Gold Standard" alternative. He offers 85% of Füllkrug’s aerial dominance but with 10 years more "tread on the tires." He is a capital investment, whereas Füllkrug is a rental expense.
2. The "Moneyball" Choice: Nicolò Tresoldi A lifelong Milan fan currently impressing at Club Brugge/Hannover roots, Tresoldi is the type of profile CEO Giorgio Furlani favors. He matches the high-intensity pressing (3.2 pressures) that Füllkrug lacks, though he would require a "seasoning" period before leading the line at San Siro.

"The Verdict: Short-term Fix vs. Long-term Health"

"Signing Füllkrug is a "Tactical Bailout." It solves Allegri's immediate suffocation problem but leaves the club with an aging, high-wage asset that will be impossible to sell in 24 months."

Counterargument 3: The System Adaptation Risk

Hypothesis: Building around Füllkrug forces Milan to accommodate a "tactical crutch," potentially compromising their long-term identity for a short-term fix.

The "Historical Warning": Manchester United & Wout Weghorst (2023)

In January 2023, Manchester United signed Wout Weghorst to solve a "structural gap" following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. Like Füllkrug, Weghorst was an aerially dominant reference point (4.47 aerial wins per 90) brought in to provide a "focal point."

Wout Weghorst Manchester United(Credit: Bola.com)

However, the empirical evidence from that six-month period serves as a grave warning for Milan:

• The Goal Drought: Weghorst played 17 Premier League matches without scoring a single goal. While he provided "structural relief," he fundamentally lacked the clinical edge required at an elite club.
• The xG Trap: United's attack became predictable. Despite his hold-up play, Weghorst significantly underperformed his Expected Goals (xG), finishing his loan with just 2 goals across 31 appearances in all competitions.
• Slower Transition Speeds: Because Weghorst could not lead a high-speed break, United’s "Build-up tempo" slowed. Defenders began to bypass the midfield entirely to hit the "Big Man," leading to tactical rigidity the exact same risk Milan faces with Allegri’s "Bypass Blueprint."

"The Verdict: Füllkrug is the medicine for Milan’s current headache, but the side effects might just be worse than the disease."

What the Data Actually Recommends

The Three-Scenario Framework

Scenario A: Füllkrug as a "Tactical Wild Card" (Recommended)

• Role: 15-20 minutes per game as a late-game change of pace.
• Usage: Against low blocks or when protecting leads.
• Contract: 18-month loan with an option to buy.
• Why It Works: Provides a bypass option without compromising Milan's primary identity.

Scenario B: Füllkrug as a Starter (High Risk, High Reward)

• Role: First-choice striker in a 4-4-2 diamond system.
• Usage: A full tactical pivot to Allegri's "corto muso" philosophy.
• Contract: 2-year permanent deal.
• Why It's Risky: Sacrifices Leão and Pulisic's transition threat in favor of structural relief.

Scenario C: No Füllkrug (Status Quo)

• Role: Continue with Leão, Pulisic, Nkunku, and Giménez.
• Usage: Invest elsewhere (midfielder, right-back).
• Why It Fails: This approach doesn’t solve the defensive fatigue problem that’s costing Milan 0.4-0.6 points per game.

References & Further Reading

Primary Data Sources:

• FBref (2024). Niclas Füllkrug – Player Statistics & Scouting Report. Sports Reference LLC.
• Transfermarkt (2024). Niclas Füllkrug – Market Value & Career Profile. Transfermarkt GmbH & Co. KG.
• Understat (2024). Niclas Füllkrug – Advanced Metrics & Expected Goals (xG) Analysis. Understat Analytics.
• FBref (2024). AC Milan Squad Statistics – 2024/25 Season. Sports Reference LLC.
• Bundesliga (2024). Official Player Statistics & Performance Metrics. DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga.

Related Tactical Analysis:

• Wakid, S. (2024). Allegri's No. 9 and The Art of Escaping Pressure. syahrierwakid.com.

Methodology Note:
All statistical data was accessed between December 2024 and January 2025. Aerial duel percentages, pressing metrics, and xG figures are calculated using publicly available data from the sources listed above. Match-specific case studies reference archived performance data from the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons.