Training Ground

: 2.43 xG created vs 0.39 xG conceded (data source: 

 tell the story, but let me tell you what made Saturday night so special. Christopher Nkunku 

! After eight matches of critics calling him an "expensive flop" and saying we "should've kept Giroud," he shut everyone up in the most spectacular fashion possible.

But here is what really got me buzzing. It wasn't just the goals. It was 

. The tactical discipline and the defensive solidity were off the charts. Verona didn't get a 

! We controlled the match from start to finish. This was the kind of performance that makes you lean back and smile because we aren't just competing. We are ready to win the whole damn thing! So let me break down the last match of 2025 because if this is how we end the year, then 

Pre-Match: The Nkunku Elephant in the Room

Okay, let's talk about the thing everyone was thinking but nobody wanted to say out loud: I was genuinely worried about Christopher Nkunku starting. Not because he wasn't trying. God knows the man had been working his tail off since his 

. You could see it every match—the intelligent movement, dropping deep to connect play, making runs that opened space for teammates, pressing defenders relentlessly. The effort was never in question.

And listen, I get it. Strikers go through droughts. It happens. But when you're the 

, when you've got a reputation to uphold, when every match day comes and goes without a goal—the pressure builds.

 The kind of takes that make you want to throw your phone across the room.



The numbers told a painful story: 8 matches, 0 goals, mounting pressure.

But here's the thing that stuck with me: 

. Every single press conference, same energy. 

"The goals will come. I have complete faith in Christopher. Trust me."

First Half: Allegri's Tactical Chess Game

The Formation - Both Teams Playing 3-5-2, But...

Here's where it gets interesting. Both Milan and Verona lined up in 3-5-2 formations. Same shape on paper. But watch what Allegri did differently.

Now here's the clever bit: our wing-backs didn't play symmetrically. 

 stayed wide on the left, hugging the touchline to stretch Verona's defense horizontally. But 

 on the right? He didn't play as a traditional winger. He tucked inside, operating almost as a fourth midfielder in the central channels.

 By inverting Saelemaekers, we overloaded the midfield. Verona's left-sided defenders didn't know whether to track him inside (leaving the flank open) or stay wide (leaving him free in the middle).

 The Serie A average position map above clearly shows Bartesaghi (#33) playing wide on the touchline, while Saelemaekers (#56) is positioned significantly more centrally, occupying the half-space.

THE MODRIĆ MASTERCLASS: Dropping Deep Like a Midfielder Playing 4D Chess

Okay, this is where I genuinely geeked out, he's still doing things that make me rewind the footage and question everything I know about age curves in football. 

Picture this: Milan's three center-backs have the ball. Verona's sitting in their compact mid-block, waiting. Then Modrić just... 

. Like he's suddenly transformed into a fourth defender.

When Modrić drops deep into the defensive line, he forces Verona's midfielder (Bernede) into a "Pick Your Poison" scenario:

 If Bernede follows Modrić deep, he vacates the center of the pitch.

 A massive gap opens up behind him, allowing 

 to receive the ball on the half-turn with momentum to drive at the defense.

 If Bernede stays put to protect the space, he leaves Modrić completely unmarked.

 Modrić receives the ball with zero pressure, allowing him to lift his head and execute his trademark 

 in the first half. Nine of those sequences (

) resulted in Milan bypassing Verona's first line of pressure and pushing them back into their own defensive third.

48' - The Penalty That Changed Everything

Three minutes into the second half, I'm still riding high from Pulisic's goal. Then 

Nkunku gets the ball about 25 yards out. He's not looking to pass, his body shape is screaming 

 He drives at Verona's defense. Into the box. Nelsson, their center-back, panics and fouls him.

 (players score from the spot about 79% of the time). But this felt bigger than that. This was Nkunku's first Serie A goal after 

He steps up. Cool as ice. Send the keeper the wrong way. 

51' - When Strikers Smell Blood (The Instinct Goal)

This is my favorite goal of the night because it shows 

. It's a powerful drive, but the keeper (Montipò) gets a hand to it.

, Nkunku starts moving forward. He's anticipating the rebound.

 (from 6 yards, unmarked, you're scoring 95% of the time)

But the reason he got there? Pure anticipation

 His first two Serie A goals. The monkey is off his back. The confidence is back.

Okay, let's talk numbers, but in a way that actually makes sense.

 Think of xG like this: based on where shots are taken from, how many goals 

 We didn't just win; we battered them. We created enough high-quality chances to score nearly three goals, while Verona created... well, basically nothing.

This is the stat that proves it wasn't just "lucky counters." We kept the ball better than they did (

 we did it while taking risks to move forward. usually, high accuracy means boring, safe passing. Not today.

 forward-breaking passes compared to Verona's 28.

 We held the ball, we used it better, and we moved it faster.

Not "we saved them all." Not "they hit the post." They literally didn't force Mike Maignan to make a single save.

 Allegri's defensive setup was a clinic. When Verona had the ball:

We pressed strategically only in the right moments.

Alright, let's zoom out. After this 3-0 victory, we are sitting 

But here is why I am genuinely confident this is our year. It’s not just the table; it’s the trendlines.

1. Defensive Stability is Championship-Level

 Defenses win titles, and ours has turned into a fortress. Over our last 8 matches, the numbers are frightening (for everyone else):

 We don't give up big chances anymore. We suffocate teams until they break. 

2. Nkunku's Breakthrough Changes Everything

 Before Saturday, the pressure was mounting: 

Strikers are momentum players. The first goal is always the hardest. Now that the dam has broken, watch out. His underlying numbers were always there, he is averaging 

 (Top 5 in Serie A). Now those shots are finally hitting the net. 

 We have been here before with Max. Historical data on Allegri's title-winning seasons shows a clear pattern in the "Run-In" (Final 12 Matches):

 when the pressure is highest. The man doesn't panic. He doesn't play "champagne football" when it's not needed. He grinds results. And right now, he has this Milan machine grinding perfectly. 

 I've watched Milan for more than fifteen years. I've seen the highs and the banter-era lows. This feels different. We have the 

What a Way to End 2025: How Milan's 3-0 Masterclass Against Verona Proved We're Ready for the Scudetto!

AC Milan's January transfer window revolves around a single question: Does a team built on speed, width, and transition need a traditional No. 9?

The answer, according to Massimiliano Allegri's tactical blueprint, is yes, but not for the reasons most fans think.

This isn't about goals. It's about structural relief. And Niclas Füllkrug, 

West Ham's 31-year-old German international

, represents the most polarizing test case in modern Serie A.

The data presents two conflicting analytical narratives:

 Füllkrug is a monster in the air. Last season, he won nearly 

. He is the "Bypass" button Milan has been missing; the guy who wins the long ball so the rest of the team can finally stop defending and start breathing.

 The trade-off is real. Füllkrug isn’t a "marathon" striker. He ranks in the 

, meaning he won’t be sprinting to press the keeper. If Milan wants a high-energy "hunting" system, he’s a massive roadblock.

So which narrative wins? Let's follow the data, not the sentiment.


The Füllkrug Profile: What the Numbers Actually Say

To understand why Allegri wants a 31-year-old from West Ham, you have to look past the goals. You have to look at his 

Notice the extreme difference in shape between Füllkrug (Pink) and Milan’s current striker Giménez (Yellow). Giménez dominates the box; Füllkrug dominates the air.

The Visual Evidence: A Clash of Identities

The radar chart above isn't just data; it’s a map of two different sports.

. His shape pulls heavily to the right. He is elite at getting touches in the box (

), but he offers almost zero vertical outlet.

. His shape stretches aggressively to the bottom-left. He is the only player in this comparison who functions as a true "Target Hub," dominating the aerial and long-pass metrics.

According to the 2025/26 volume metrics comparison (see table below), Füllkrug is a 

 in the areas Milan is currently weakest.

 in vertical dominance. When Maignan kicks long, Füllkrug actually makes it a 50/50 contest; Giménez makes it a turnover.

, the highest among Serie A’s elite targets. He isn't just a striker; he is a magnet for the "panic ball." When the midfield is suffocating, he provides the exit route that Lukaku (6.20) and Vlahović (5.10) do not.

The trade-off for this structural dominance is clear in the data. Füllkrug is a specialist, not a multi-tool.

. Why? Because he spends half the game fighting center-backs at the halfway line to win the initial ball.

 While he wins the ball, he doesn't run with it. Ranking in the 

, Füllkrug is a "Wall", he bounces the ball to Leão or Pulisic rather than turning and sprinting.

Füllkrug’s heatmap (implied by his lower box touches) shows a 

. In a Fonseca system, this is a disaster because the striker needs to press. In an 

, this is the "Key." Allegri doesn't want his striker chasing fullbacks; he wants him pinned centrally to occupy two defenders, leaving the half-spaces wide open for 

 Giménez is the better finisher, but Füllkrug is the only one playing the position Allegri actually needs.


The Case for Füllkrug: When Data Supports the Move

For AC Milan, the potential addition of Niclas Füllkrug presents a fascinating case study. Could he be the answer to their pressing challenges, or would his limitations expose the team's vulnerabilities? Here, we explore both sides of this debate.

 Adding Füllkrug provides Milan with a "tactical timeout" when facing deep defensive blocks.

, Füllkrug operates in a different tactical weight class than Milan's current options. While Tammy Abraham receives roughly 

 long passes per 90 minutes, Füllkrug is the target for a massive 

This isn't just a number; it's a structural revolution. That difference means Füllkrug provides 

 where Maignan can bypass the press entirely.

Imagine this: Every time Füllkrug controls one of those 8 long balls, Milan’s defensive line gets to sprint 

 without playing a single risky pass. It’s a "Tactical Reset" that happens four times more often than it does with Abraham. That is roughly 

 of game time where Milan isn't pinned in their own box.

Historical Precedent: The Dortmund Blueprint

The proof is in the Champions League run. During Borussia Dortmund’s 2023/24 road to the final, Füllkrug didn't just score; he carried the team up the pitch. In the Champions League specifically, he won an elite 

, essentially guaranteeing his defenders a "get out of jail free" card almost four times every match.

 Against Serie A’s deep defensive teams, Füllkrug creates vertical overloads that force compact formations to break.

confirms that Füllkrug’s primary function is "Pinning." By occupying two center-backs physically, he creates a 

 This drop creates crucial pockets of space between the opposition midfield and defense.

 In the 2023/24 season, Füllkrug averaged 

. Crucially, most of these weren't from dribbles, but from 

winning the initial ball and setting up a teammate (like Brandt/Malen, or now Pulisic) for a shot.

Case Study: Füllkrug vs. High Pressing Teams 

When facing aggressive high-lines (similar to Atalanta or Inter), Füllkrug transforms from a scorer to a "Wall." Looking at his performance against 

 in 2023/24, the data shows his value as an outlet:

 (Top 30% of forwards). Against high-pressing teams, these are "Gold" opportunity, cheap free kicks that break the opponent's rhythm and allow Milan to push up.

 Against PSG (a relentless pressing team), Füllkrug didn't just win headers; he acted as a pivot, receiving 

. He is the "Safety Valve" Maignan needs when the short option is cut off.

The Case AGAINST Füllkrug: When Data Contradicts the Move

 Füllkrug’s lack of pressing and mobility undermines Milan’s transition identity.

 FBref's advanced metrics confirm a stark defensive disparity. Füllkrug ranks in the 

bottom 10th percentile for defensive actions

, averaging significantly fewer ball regains than Milan’s current forward line. This discrepancy creates a numerical disadvantage when attempting to squeeze the pitch.

 Milan’s most lethal attacks often occur within 10 seconds of winning possession. However, 

Füllkrug’s recorded top speed this season is just 28.6 km/h

 than Rafael Leão’s 36.5 km/h. In a high-speed break, Füllkrug becomes a spectator rather than a participant.

Füllkrug's defensive actions to those of Milan's forwards, illustrating the "passive zone" he operates in.

FBref Scouting Report - European Big 5 Leagues (2024-2026)

 represents the "Passive Anchor." His total of 

 per 90 is statistically negligible compared to a high-intensity worker like Saelemaekers. He is a "statue" in the press, which confirms the 

Counterargument 2: The Age & Wages Question

 Füllkrug (31 years old, high wages) represents a short-term solution that contradicts Milan's rebuilding philosophy.

. West Ham's asking price ranges between 

, potentially keeping him at the club until age 33-34.

While Füllkrug offers immediate structural relief, he represents a "sunk cost" with zero salvage value. To illustrate the alternative path, I have selected four players, ranging from established elite targets to "Moneyball" scouting gems, who fit the 

: low entry age, high physical ceiling, and massive resale potential. 

The following table compares our primary target with four younger alternatives currently on the market or in the squad. Note how the "Resale Value" inversely correlates with age, highlighting the financial risk of the Füllkrug move.

The "Market Opportunity": Dušan Vlahović

 Under Allegri at Juventus, Vlahović was a vertical reference point. With his contract winding down in 2026, he is the "Gold Standard" alternative. He offers 

 but with 10 years more "tread on the tires." He is a capital investment, whereas Füllkrug is a rental expense.

 A lifelong Milan fan currently impressing at Club Brugge/Hannover roots, Tresoldi is the type of profile CEO Giorgio Furlani favors. He matches the 

 (3.2 pressures) that Füllkrug lacks, though he would require a "seasoning" period before leading the line at San Siro.

The Verdict: Short-term Fix vs. Long-term Health

 It solves Allegri's immediate suffocation problem but leaves the club with an aging, high-wage asset that will be impossible to sell in 24 months.

Counterargument 3: The System Adaptation Risk

 Building around Füllkrug forces Milan to accommodate a "tactical crutch," potentially compromising their long-term identity for a short-term fix.

The "Historical Warning": Manchester United & Wout Weghorst (2023)

In January 2023, Manchester United signed Wout Weghorst to solve a "structural gap" following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. Like Füllkrug, Weghorst was an aerially dominant reference point (

However, the empirical evidence from that six-month period serves as a grave warning for Milan:

17 Premier League matches without scoring a single goal

. While he provided "structural relief," he fundamentally lacked the clinical edge required at an elite club.

 United's attack became predictable. Despite his hold-up play, Weghorst significantly 

, finishing his loan with just 2 goals across 31 appearances in all competitions.

 Because Weghorst could not lead a high-speed break, United’s "Build-up tempo" slowed. Defenders began to bypass the midfield entirely to hit the "Big Man," leading to 

the exact same risk Milan faces with Allegri’s "Bypass Blueprint."

 Füllkrug is the medicine for Milan’s current headache, but the side effects might just be worse than the disease.

Scenario A: Füllkrug as a "Tactical Wild Card" (Recommended)

 15-20 minutes per game as a late-game change of pace.

 Against low blocks or when protecting leads.

 Provides a bypass option without compromising Milan's primary identity.

Scenario B: Füllkrug as a Starter (High Risk, High Reward)

 First-choice striker in a 4-4-2 diamond system.

Füllkrug, Milan, and the No. 9 in Question: What the Data Actually Says

There is an unwritten rule that Massimiliano Allegri has turned into a career-defining dogma: 

 (The game is simple, but it isn't easy). While modern managers obsess over 2-3-5 rotations and inverted fullbacks, Allegri's success has always relied on a singular, ancient structural requirement, called 

. He demands a striker who does not play for himself, but for the geometry of the team. From Ibrahimović to Mandžukić, and now to Füllkrug, the lineage is unbroken.

There's a reason the No. 9 at Milan always feels heavier than the shirt itself. It isn't just goals. It's a memory. Van Basten's beauty, Inzaghi's obsession, Zlatan's inevitability, Giroud's calm. Every generation adds another layer of expectation until the number stops being a position and becomes a test of identity.

in an Allegri-style team, the No. 9 is often less "hero" and more system component

. Not a crown. A lever. A release valve. A way to turn pressure into territory, and territory into a moment. Allegri's best sides have been built to win different kinds of games rather than insisting on one pure ideology. That mindset fundamentally changes what "great striker play" even looks like. Sometimes it's not about domination, it's about survival with purpose.

So if you want to understand Allegri's No. 9, don't start with highlights. Start with a question: 

when the game gets messy, who helps the team breathe?

The Philosophical Foundation: "È Molto Semplice"

The answer begins in Allegri’s 2019 publication, 

), where he outlines his "32 Rules for Football." Allegri argues that tactical complexity is often a mask for poor fundamental understanding. His central thesis emphasizes "knowing your players' characteristics" above rigid systems, which leads directly to his requirement for a 

—a player capable of functioning as a structural lighthouse when the midfield is submerged.

This isn't anti-football; it is intelligent pragmatism. According to tactical analysis regarding 

 necessitates a "long-ball outlet" to prevent fatigue. Without this escape valve, the team is forced to play through sustained high pressure, dramatically increasing the 

 in the defensive third, exactly where turnovers are most lethal.

 The evidence is found in the data of the 2011/12 Scudetto-fighting campaign. While critics remember "long balls," the data reveals 

 They used Zlatan Ibrahimović as a singular bypass mechanism. In that season, Ibrahimović was directly involved in 

 (28 goals, 8 assists)—the highest individual dependency rate of any player in Europe’s top five leagues.

 verticality. Zlatan’s ability to kill high passes allowed him to generate 

 (Serie A leader), proving that the "Bypass" wasn't a desperation clearance. It was the team's primary playmaker.

We don't need to guess if Füllkrug fits. The data shows he is a near-perfect clone of Allegri’s most successful Scudetto-winning strikers.

 Füllkrug leads all contemporary strikers in aerial duels won per 90 (3.813.813.81) while maintaining elite holdup efficiency (71.5%71.5\%71.5%). This mirrors Zlatan's 2010-11 role, not as the primary scorer, but as the 

 that collapses defenses and creates space for runners.

The Milan Paradox: Archetype vs. Function

This brings us to Milan's present challenge, and it's a significant one.

Milan currently possesses elite "Runners" but lacks the "Anchor" to release them. This creates a 

Rafael Leão, Christian Pulisic, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Christopher Nkunku, 

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